Discussion on the development trend of global and Chinese LED industry next year

A few days ago, the 2017 Principal Consultant Market Analysis Meeting was held in Shenzhen, and invited a number of analysts and senior industry players to share and discuss on the spot. The conference focused on the development trend of the global and Chinese LED industry in 2017, and comprehensively interpreted various issues such as Micro-LED, UV LED, automotive lighting, and LED price game phenomenon. A few days ago, the 2017 Principal Consultant Market Analysis Meeting was held in Shenzhen, and invited a number of analysts and senior industry players to share and discuss on the spot. The conference focused on the development trend of the global and Chinese LED industry in 2017, and comprehensively interpreted various issues such as Micro-LED, UV LED, automotive lighting, and LED price game phenomenon. Below, Xiaobian takes everyone to pay attention to what the dry goods are worthy of our attention. In the 2017 Supermarket, LED manufacturers accelerated their transfer to niche-type applications. Chu Yuchao first reviewed the development trend of the LED industry in 2016. He pointed out that the global LED market output value reached US$14.8 billion in 2016, with an annual growth rate of 3.4%. Looking forward to 2017, the LED market is still fiercely competitive. Manufacturers will accelerate their profitability to niche markets such as small-pitch display, infrared and ultraviolet LEDs. The estimated output value will reach US$15.4 billion, up 4% year-on-year. In 2016, the global LED market output value growth rate is not high, but the overall industry has undergone dramatic changes. Chu Yuchao said that under the rise of the demand for small-pitch LED displays, the upstream LED chip supply is tight, making some LED chips and packaged devices appear for the first time in the past five years. As for the downstream LED lighting products, there is also a large price increase. The main reason is to reflect the rising cost of raw materials, especially the bulk metal raw materials such as copper and aluminum, which have seen price increases in the second half of this year, making LED lighting manufacturers Have to announce the price increase to reflect the cost. However, this wave of price hikes has limited help for the actual profitability of the manufacturers, so most LED manufacturers are actively thinking about the transformation strategy and accelerating the transfer into the niche market. For the segmentation field, Chu Yuchao believes that the small-pitch LED display market has become a battleground for the military. As the small-pitch LED display has driven the number of LEDs to increase geometrically, it has attracted many Chinese LED packaging factories to expand their production capacity. This market is a big pie. In addition, the application market of UVC-LED will gradually expand with the improvement of efficiency, and infrared LED will have great business opportunities in the fields of security and iris recognition and somatosensory detection of VR applications. Another important thing in 2017 is that Micro LED products are expected to come out. Micro LED has the opportunity to replace the next-generation display technology of OLED panels, attracting many brand manufacturers to invest in research and development resources. Although the current Micro LED distance is still far away from the existing TFT-LCD (liquid crystal) and OLED displays, and there are still many new display technologies in the market, some manufacturers have planned to introduce market positioning different from LCD or OLED. The panel's Micro LED display application accelerates mass production with a lower PPI or a relatively small number of pixels. LEDinside expects to see Micro LED related products coming out in 2017. Liu Zhaojun's development of Micro-LED display technology In recent years, LED has attracted more and more eyeballs with its superior characteristics such as high brightness, high efficiency, long life and so on. At present, LED is not only applied to LCD backlight modules, intelligent lighting, outdoor large screens, but also micro LED display is attracting the attention of the world's major display technology companies and research institutes. Liu Zhaojun, assistant professor of the School of Joint Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, Sun Yat-sen University, believes that as a self-illuminating device, micro LED has its unique advantages, such as low operating voltage, high efficiency, high brightness, simple optical structure, and wide working range. Considered to be the ideal next-generation display technology, its applications will include large/medium size outdoor/indoor large screens, desktop/notebook displays, mobile products such as cell phones/digital cameras/portable projector screens, watches/wristles, etc. Wearable products. Liu Zhaojun said that as one of the earliest teams in the world to develop micro-LED technology, his team has developed 7-generation micro-LED technology in the past decade, from passive address-driven micro-LED arrays to active-sited micro-LED arrays, from small areas. Chip-to-module transfer large-area technology, from monochrome to color, from ultraviolet micro-LED to blue, green, red-light micro-LED display, and developed the world's first backlight-based micro LED projector, and integrated Micro-LED display chips for optical communication functions are also available. Sun Jiaxin UV LED product technology development trend and overall solution In recent years, the LED industry's gross profit margin has been declining, general lighting has accelerated into a stable period, and companies have begun to expand the emerging blue ocean market. UV LED is considered to be the feast of LED in the second half, which is well received by the market. And business chase. In order to enable the industry to understand UV LED and Tiandian Optoelectronics more deeply, Dr. Sun Jiaxin, Director of Tiandian Optoelectronics Technology, shared his experience and insights on the theme of UV LED product technology development trend and overall solution. Dr. Sun Jiaxin has extended from the more mature UVA-LED market, packaging and chip technology to the more difficult UVC-LED market, technology and product solutions. As far as UV LED packaging technology is concerned, Dr. Sun Jiaxin said that for 265nm and UVC-LED product packaging, it is recommended to use all-inorganic packaging to avoid the use of organic materials to improve life and reliability to compensate for chip defects, while other bands will follow white light packaging technology. The development of technology is inseparable from the market, and regarding the market development of UV LED, Dr. Sun Jiaxin elaborated from the two markets of UVA-LED and UVC-LED. Dr. Sun Jiaxin believes that UVA-LED is mainly used in the three major markets of exposure machines, printers and printing machines. It is estimated that the market size in China will reach 447 million yuan by 2018. UVC-LED is mainly used for medical, sterilization, purification and biological monitoring. The largest part of the air/water purification module market forecast will increase from US$100 million in 2016 to US$400 million in 2019, and CAGR will exceed 50%. Finally extended to the field of application products, Dr. Sun Jiaxin deeply analyzed the representative product solutions in the three fields of UVA curing, UVC purification and sterilization. Yu Bin LED prices stopped falling, pushing the chip packaging market to grow at a small scale. Senior analyst Yu Bin said that in 2016, the total value of China's LED lighting exports was basically flat, and the driving force of lighting on the industry was insufficient. However, prices have stopped falling in 2016, and the industry has continued to grow in the automotive sector and small-pitch segments. In the field of upstream LED chips, the market size reached RMB 13.9 billion in 2016, a year-on-year growth of 9%, the chip country's production rate rose to 76%, the market share of the top ten manufacturers rose to 77%; in the midstream packaging field, the market size reached RMB 58.9 billion in 2016. The renminbi grew by 6% year-on-year, and the national productivity rose to 67%. The market share of the top ten manufacturers rose to 43%. Looking forward to 2017, the industry has entered a mature stage, the market growth rate continues to slow down, and the small-pitch and other sub-sectors are still the main driving force for market growth. In addition, new fields such as Micro-LED and plant lighting will be concerned. Wang Ting's headlights market is growing rapidly, and the market size of automotive LEDs has doubled in five years. Senior analyst Wang Ting has analyzed the automotive LED market. Wang Ting said that in the output value part, the future growth of automotive exterior LEDs is expected. The global LED production value of automotive exterior lighting reached 1.21 billion US dollars in 2015 and is expected to grow to 2.13 billion US dollars in 2020. Among them, the headlight module (near-light) LED package has the highest growth rate of single output. Looking at the output value change in LED package power, low power will shrink in the next five years, while high power will grow rapidly. In 2015, the output value of LED headlamps only accounted for 40% of the exterior lights. However, with the increase of penetration rate, it will start to rise sharply in 2016, exceeding the proportion of 50% of the overall exterior lights. In addition, in the Chinese market, the development of electric vehicle demand and the gradual maturity and high-end of products will drive the increase in the output value of automotive LEDs. In the vendor and supply chain segments, international first-line LED suppliers are gradually reducing their share of the backlight and lighting market, and in turn supporting automotive and other niche applications. At present, in China's pre-installation market, LED suppliers are still dominated by international manufacturers, but Chinese Taiwanese manufacturers are stabilizing and gradually infiltrating from applications such as taillights. And mainland Chinese manufacturers are trying to cut into the market from the aftermarket. Liang Litian applied full-band optoelectronic innovation to meet the all-round intelligent world. The director of the industrial research office of Jingyuan Optoelectronics Marketing Center Liang Litian applied the full-band optoelectronic innovation to the all-round intelligent world as the theme, expounding the special application of LED in visible light. And the application status and future prospects of the two fields of special application of invisible light. Among them, in the special application part of visible light, he mainly analyzed the application prospects of LED in the three representative markets of agricultural plant lighting, fishery application and animal husbandry. As far as plant lighting is concerned, he proposes that different plants use different light levels at different stages of growth and different purposes and needs. There are many subdivision applications. For the special application part of invisible light, he analyzes the future prospects of invisible LED through many fields such as medical, sensing, VR, automotive, and smart home currently involved in UV LED and IR LED. Liang Litian believes that LED has a pivotal position in many applications. We believe that LED is a key optoelectronic component, with good hardware and good system design, can achieve 1+12 effect. Wang Juxian, an explosion-proof, medical lighting and other niche-type market, still has growth momentum analyst Wang Juxian said that the importance of industrial lighting in the lighting industry is becoming more and more obvious. In 2016, the global industrial lighting market was 2.932 billion US dollars, and in the next few years it exceeded 15 The growth rate of % will grow. By 2020, the market size will reach 5.204 billion US dollars. According to the LEDinside survey report of Jibang Consulting, the global explosion-proof product market is growing rapidly and the demand is rising. According to the application place, from 2016 to 2017, except for the slow decline of the products in the 0 area such as mining areas, it is used in Zone 1 ( The proportion and scale of industrial lighting and explosion-proof lamps (such as stadiums, general factory lighting, etc.) in the oil station, petrochemical and other lighting areas are increasing. In 2017, it is expected to increase by 22% and 25% year-on-year. . In 2016, the global medical surgical lighting market reached US$612 million. By 2020, the global medical surgical lighting market will grow to US$787 million. At present, the main manufacturing areas of medical lighting are Europe and the United States, of which LED medical lighting manufacturing in Europe accounts for 45%, which is the largest in the world, followed by the United States, accounting for 25%. Due to the large population base, the Asian market will drive to become the fastest growing regional market for medical lighting as the volume of surgery increases, the elderly population and chronic diseases increase, and medical standards improve. The structural price increase of Wang Fei LED has not changed the market structure. The future price trend depends on the manufacturer's game. Wang Fei analyzes the price phenomenon of the LED industry in 2016 from the perspective of supply and demand. It points out that the main factor of the LED industry price increase in 2016 is the rising price of raw materials on the supply side. And the demand for small-pitch LED displays in this segment of the rapid growth. Because the main reason for the price increase is the cost factor, there are not many enterprises benefiting from the demand growth. Therefore, the price increase benefit is relatively limited, mainly concentrated in the display supply chain and the production link that has the ability to pass the cost downstream. Most of the mid-stream and downstream manufacturers are facing the unfavorable situation of sluggish demand and rapid increase in material costs, which affects profitability. In addition, Wang Fei also interprets the price game phenomenon of Sanan and Jingdian in China's LED chip market in the past year, discusses the impact of different strategies on performance, and recommends that chip manufacturers adopt a reasonable strategy in 2017 to maintain The industry entered a cooperative game mode, continuing the situation that prices did not fall and rise in 2016, and avoided the vicious competition of re-entering the price war too quickly.

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